By: Lauren Milam, Kentucky Department of Education
In August 2021 the New York Times published a piece about the “pandemic exodus” from public schools. In their nationwide study they found that enrollment in schools had dropped, particularly among students in kindergarten.
It got us thinking – what’s the story in Kentucky?
Using the latest school report card release we found that student membership in Kentucky’s schools decreased by 1.5%. That translates to 9,751 fewer students in 2020-21 than there were in 2019-20. That is a lot of students we need to account for – and, diving into the data shows some patterns that are worth noting.
1. Drops in student membership affected all parts of the state
Every regional service area saw student membership decrease. The southeastern and northern regions of the Commonwealth saw the greatest decreases in enrollment and Jefferson County and the Kentucky Valley Educational Cooperative (in the eastern part of the state) saw the smallest decreases from 2019-20 to 2020-21.
2. The number of students in pre-kindergarten dropped by 20%.
The biggest student membership losses were in early grades while enrollment remained more stable in middle and high school grades. Pre-kindergarten, 3rd grade, and kindergarten saw the largest drops (-20%, -10%, and -8% respectively) while 2nd grade saw the most dramatic growth in enrollment (7%).
The large decrease in preschool enrollment is particularly troublesome. Countless studies have quantified the benefits of attending preschool. Students who attend preschool are more academically ready for kindergarten, have better executive functioning skills, are more likely to graduate from high school and college, and are less likely to become teenage parents or receive public assistance.[1][2] The fact that 20% fewer students participated in such programs should raise concern for the long-term costs to these students and their communities.
This decrease may be the result of many districts’ decision to conduct school virtually last year. Virtual learning was difficult for many students, but studies show that it was particularly difficult for early childhood learners and their caregivers.[3] Teachers had to rely heavily on caregivers to support instruction– a large ask for families where caregivers work full time or have multiple children to support. Some families may have found that burden to be difficult to manage and opted to keep their out of school.
3. Drops in pre-kindergarten enrollment were particularly pronounced among African American students
There was a 30% decrease in pre-kindergarten membership among African American students, more than 1.5 times the drop in any other racial subgroup. It is well documented that the COVID-19 pandemic affected African American individuals more so than any other racial group.
The COVID-19 death rate for African American people is 1.4 times that of white people, nationwide.[4] Given the fear that the virus might spread quickly in schools, particularly in urban areas with higher student populations, one can speculate a possible reason that African American families may have enrolled at lower rates than other racial groups. Another possible reason for the declining membership in pre-kindergarten enrollment may have been learning contexts. In Jefferson County, home to the majority of African American students in Kentucky, schooling occurred virtually for the entire year – a setting that has been shown to be a challenge for early childhood settings (as discussed above).
Conclusions
There is still much to understand about the long-term effects of this decrease in enrollment during the pandemic. For example: Will those students who left return to public schools? How will the pandemic shape our student body in the long run?
More practically, the state legislature has already addressed one potential problem for districts who lost students: funding. Funding for schools in the Commonwealth is based on enrollment numbers. With the passage of SB1, districts are able to use prior years’ enrollment to help mitigate some of this potential decrease in funding for one year.
However, there’s also the question about long-term, harder to measure costs. With so many students missing out on pivotal early childhood education, what investments should be made to support them throughout the rest of their K-12 experience? What supports need to be put in place academically and socially to ensure their success? The Kentucky Board of Education has prioritized early learning for the upcoming legislative session. There is a great opportunity to use this information to inform the policy approach.
While the data presented here show that students left the classroom from 2019-20 to 2020-21, there’s little understanding as to why. Some possible reasons include health and safety concerns, disagreement with mask mandates in public schools, inability to participate in virtual learning requirements (because of time or because of access to internet), or dissatisfaction with public school options. Understanding the why behind this trend will help inform our understanding of what to do with this information moving forward.
Sources
[1] Ansari, A., Pianta, R., Whittaker, J. V., Vitiello, V. E., & Ruzek, E.A. (2020). Persistance and convergence: The end of kindergarten outcomes of pre-k graduates and their non-attending peers. Developmental Psychology.
[2] Phillips, D. A., Lipsey, M. W., Dodge, K. A., Haskins, R., Bassok, D., Burchinal, M. R., Duncan, G. J., Dynarski, M., Magnuson, K. A., & Weiland, C. (2017). Puzzling it out: The current state of scientific knowledge on pre-kindergarten effects. The Brookings Institute.
[3] Dong, C., Cao, S., & Li, H. (2020). Young children’s online learning during COVID-19 pandemic: Chinese parents’ beliefs and attitudes. Children and youth services review, 118, 105440.
[4] (2021). The COVID Racial Data Tracker. The Atlantic.